KOMA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

74%

63%

46%

27%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

WN2NO 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.40u · WN2 −48.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	29.2%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	22.6%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	7.7%	0.9%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	59.7%	2.2%	1.4%	—	28.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	60.1%	17.5%	41.3%	—	25.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	72.4%	9.3%	11.0%	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	31.6%	11.5%	13.1%	92.2%	7.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	8.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	76%	75.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	74.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	72.9°F	7.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	70.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	67.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	67.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗