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KOMA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
76%
HRES
74%
EPS
63%
AIFS
46%
WN2
27%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 51.6¢Risks 51.60u
VS
WN2NO 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.40u · WN2 −48.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:06+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:06+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00IFS HRES: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS HRES: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00IFS HRES: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS HRES: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS HRES: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:06+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00ICON: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00ICON: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00ICON: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00ICON: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00ICON: 75.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:06+00:0014.4%56.4%43.0%32.6%72.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:0014.4%56.4%27.2%32.6%72.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:0014.4%56.4%27.2%32.6%72.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0014.4%56.4%27.2%32.6%72.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:0053.7%56.4%27.2%73.8%76.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0053.7%56.4%27.2%73.8%76.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0053.7%56.4%27.2%73.8%76.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0053.7%56.4%27.2%73.8%76.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:0053.7%56.4%27.2%73.8%76.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:0053.7%62.9%27.4%73.8%76.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:0053.7%62.9%27.4%73.8%76.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0053.7%62.9%27.4%73.8%76.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:0046.3%62.9%27.4%73.8%76.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0046.3%62.9%27.4%73.8%75.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON76%75.5°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES74%74.7°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble63%72.9°F7.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single46%70.0°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend36%67.0°F10.0°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 227%67.7°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗