KOMA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

18%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 17.6¢Risks 17.60u

AIFSNO 82.4¢Risks 82.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +82.40u · AIFS −82.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	7.2%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	4.2%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.7%	0.0%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	20.9%	0.1%	0.1%	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	19.9%	2.1%	9.3%	—	3.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	28.9%	0.7%	0.9%	—	2.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.7%	0.8%	1.0%	58.7%	0.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	35%	73.4°F	8.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	70.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	17%	68.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	69.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	62.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗