KOMA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

18%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 17.6¢Risks 17.60u

AIFSNO 82.4¢Risks 82.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +82.40u · AIFS −82.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:29+00:00	2.7%	30.4%	29.8%	19.3%	16.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	2.7%	30.4%	29.8%	19.3%	16.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	2.7%	30.4%	29.8%	19.3%	16.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	2.7%	30.4%	29.8%	19.3%	16.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00	2.7%	28.4%	23.5%	19.3%	16.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	2.7%	28.4%	23.5%	19.3%	16.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	2.7%	28.4%	23.5%	19.3%	16.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	2.7%	28.4%	23.5%	19.3%	16.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	0.1%	28.6%	23.5%	19.3%	16.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:57+00:00	0.1%	28.6%	23.5%	19.3%	16.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	0.1%	28.1%	23.5%	19.3%	16.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	0.1%	28.1%	23.5%	19.3%	16.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	0.1%	28.1%	24.7%	19.3%	16.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	0.1%	28.1%	24.7%	19.3%	16.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	0.1%	28.1%	24.7%	19.3%	16.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	5.1%	28.1%	24.7%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	5.1%	28.1%	24.7%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	5.1%	28.1%	24.7%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	5.1%	28.1%	24.7%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	5.1%	28.1%	24.7%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	5.1%	28.1%	8.8%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	5.1%	28.1%	8.8%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00	5.1%	28.1%	8.8%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	1.8%	28.1%	8.8%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	1.8%	28.1%	8.8%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	1.8%	28.1%	8.8%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	1.8%	28.1%	8.8%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00	1.8%	28.1%	8.8%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	1.8%	28.1%	3.7%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	1.8%	28.1%	3.7%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	1.8%	28.1%	3.7%	8.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	15.5%	28.1%	3.7%	39.3%	45.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	15.5%	28.1%	3.7%	39.3%	45.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	15.5%	28.1%	3.7%	39.3%	45.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	15.5%	28.1%	3.7%	39.3%	45.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	15.5%	28.1%	3.7%	39.3%	45.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00	15.5%	31.1%	3.0%	39.3%	45.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	15.5%	31.1%	3.0%	39.3%	45.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	15.5%	31.1%	3.0%	39.3%	45.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	11.5%	31.1%	3.0%	39.3%	45.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	11.4%	31.1%	3.0%	39.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	11.4%	31.9%	3.0%	39.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	11.4%	31.9%	3.0%	39.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	11.4%	31.9%	3.0%	39.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	11.4%	31.9%	0.4%	39.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	11.4%	31.9%	0.4%	39.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	11.4%	31.9%	0.4%	39.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	42.7%	31.9%	0.4%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	42.7%	31.9%	0.4%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	42.7%	31.9%	0.4%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	42.7%	31.9%	0.4%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	42.7%	31.9%	0.4%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	42.7%	31.9%	1.1%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	42.7%	31.9%	1.1%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	42.7%	31.9%	1.1%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	0.8%	31.9%	1.1%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	0.8%	31.9%	1.1%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	0.8%	31.9%	1.1%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	0.8%	31.9%	1.1%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	0.8%	31.9%	1.1%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	0.8%	31.9%	0.2%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	0.8%	31.9%	0.2%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	0.8%	31.9%	0.2%	38.7%	53.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	0.2%	31.9%	0.2%	38.7%	17.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	0.2%	31.9%	0.2%	38.7%	17.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	0.2%	31.9%	0.2%	38.7%	17.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	0.2%	31.9%	0.2%	38.7%	17.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00	0.2%	35.0%	1.2%	12.0%	17.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	0.2%	35.0%	1.2%	12.0%	17.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	0.2%	35.0%	1.2%	12.0%	17.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	0.2%	35.0%	1.2%	12.0%	17.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00	0.2%	35.0%	1.2%	11.9%	17.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	0.2%	35.0%	1.2%	11.9%	17.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	35%	73.4°F	8.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	70.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	17%	68.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	69.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	62.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗