KOMA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

54%

49%

17%

10%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 49.6¢Risks 49.65u

WN2NO 50.4¢Risks 50.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.35u · WN2 −50.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	16.1%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	2.6%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	5.5%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	23.3%	92.5%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	92.1%	13.4%	5.2%	—	42.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	83.9%	0.1%	52.9%	92.9%	8.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	90%	74.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	66.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	65.3°F	12.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	64.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	59.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	59.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗