KOMA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

54%

49%

17%

10%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 49.6¢Risks 49.65u

WN2NO 50.4¢Risks 50.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.35u · WN2 −50.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	27.7%	69.7%	5.2%	31.0%	89.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	27.7%	69.7%	5.2%	31.0%	89.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	27.7%	69.7%	1.2%	31.0%	89.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	27.7%	69.7%	1.2%	31.0%	89.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	27.7%	69.7%	1.2%	31.0%	89.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	53.7%	69.7%	1.2%	31.0%	89.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	53.7%	69.7%	1.2%	31.0%	89.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	53.7%	69.7%	1.2%	31.0%	89.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	53.7%	69.7%	1.2%	31.0%	89.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00	53.7%	49.4%	9.6%	16.6%	89.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	53.7%	49.4%	9.6%	16.6%	89.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	53.7%	49.4%	9.6%	16.6%	89.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	53.7%	49.4%	9.6%	16.6%	89.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00	53.7%	49.4%	9.6%	16.6%	89.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	53.7%	49.4%	9.6%	16.6%	89.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	90%	74.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	66.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	65.3°F	12.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	64.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	59.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	59.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗