KOMA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

66%

26%

22%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.5¢Risks 45.50u

WN2NO 54.5¢Risks 54.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.50u · WN2 −54.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	12.7%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	3.9%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	18.4%	89.8%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	89.1%	9.9%	3.6%	—	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	79.0%	0.1%	45.6%	90.0%	6.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	78.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	69.9°F	8.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.0°F	12.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	62.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	62.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	57.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗