KOMA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

66%

26%

22%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.5¢Risks 45.50u

WN2NO 54.5¢Risks 54.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.50u · WN2 −54.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00	76.7%	64.7%	38.5%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	76.7%	64.7%	38.5%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	76.7%	64.7%	38.5%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	42.4%	64.7%	38.5%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	42.4%	64.7%	38.4%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	42.4%	65.5%	38.4%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	42.4%	65.5%	38.4%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	42.4%	65.5%	38.4%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	42.4%	65.5%	5.0%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	42.4%	65.5%	5.0%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	42.4%	65.5%	5.0%	31.5%	47.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	71.1%	65.5%	5.0%	25.7%	87.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	71.1%	65.5%	5.0%	25.7%	87.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	71.1%	65.5%	5.0%	25.7%	87.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	71.1%	65.5%	5.0%	25.7%	87.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	71.1%	65.5%	5.0%	25.7%	87.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	71.1%	65.5%	3.4%	25.7%	87.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	71.1%	65.5%	3.4%	25.7%	87.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	71.1%	65.5%	3.4%	25.7%	87.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	22.2%	65.5%	3.4%	25.7%	87.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	22.2%	65.5%	3.4%	25.7%	87.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	22.2%	65.5%	3.4%	25.7%	87.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	78.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	69.9°F	8.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.0°F	12.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	62.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	62.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	57.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗