KOMA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

50%

32%

14%

14%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.5¢Risks 32.45u

HRESNO 67.5¢Risks 67.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.55u · HRES −67.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	4.0%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	5.8%	72.4%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	70.2%	2.3%	0.6%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	52.9%	0.0%	19.9%	70.9%	1.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	52%	71.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	70.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	70.4°F	8.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	65.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	64.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	63.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗