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KOMA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
51%
EPS
50%
ICON
32%
WN2
14%
HRES
14%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 32.5¢Risks 32.45u
VS
HRESNO 67.5¢Risks 67.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.55u · HRES −67.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:0051.4%49.5%14.1%13.5%31.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0051.4%49.5%14.1%13.5%31.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0051.4%49.5%14.1%13.5%31.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0051.4%49.5%14.1%13.5%31.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:0051.4%49.5%14.1%13.5%31.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend52%71.0°F8.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single51%70.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble50%70.4°F8.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON32%65.8°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 214%64.6°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES14%63.4°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗