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KOMA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
64%
EPS
52%
WN2
27%
AIFS
9%
HRES
4%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 33.8¢Risks 33.75u
VS
HRESNO 66.2¢Risks 66.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.25u · HRES −66.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00IFS HRES: 3.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00IFS HRES: 3.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 3.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 3.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 3.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00IFS HRES: 3.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:009.3%52.5%27.2%3.8%63.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:009.3%52.5%27.2%3.8%63.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:009.3%52.5%27.2%3.8%63.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:009.3%52.5%27.2%3.8%63.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:009.2%52.5%27.1%3.8%63.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:009.2%52.5%27.1%3.8%63.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON64%65.0°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble52%62.2°F11.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%62.0°F11.0°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 227%58.4°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single9%53.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%50.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261027-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗