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KOMA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
64%
EPS
53%
WN2
27%
AIFS
9%
HRES
4%
Consensus
20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 33.8¢Risks 33.75u
VS
HRESNO 66.2¢Risks 66.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.25u · HRES −66.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 84.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 93.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 63.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 75.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 72.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.7%———4.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:002.9%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0010.0%———45.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0043.6%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0023.2%———32.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0079.2%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0014.3%———36.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0094.1%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0014.6%———35.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0019.7%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0028.8%———44.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:006.8%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0052.7%———45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0022.8%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0033.0%———52.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0066.5%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0051.6%———64.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0078.5%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0013.8%———65.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0091.1%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0096.8%———63.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0088.2%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0074.6%—84.1%—75.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0065.1%—37.7%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0085.3%———72.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0048.8%—1.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0080.7%—1.8%—47.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0043.6%—25.0%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0056.5%—8.5%—59.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0016.3%—0.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:002.0%42.6%0.1%93.0%22.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON64%65.0°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble53%62.3°F11.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%62.0°F12.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 227%58.4°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single9%53.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%50.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261027-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗