KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

84%

67%

56%

55%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.8¢Risks 71.75u

HRESNO 28.2¢Risks 28.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.25u · HRES −28.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	93.1%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	95.4%	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	88.6%	99.0%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	95.8%	97.6%	43.0%	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	99.9%	91.6%	92.1%	—	72.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	99.5%	94.8%	82.1%	—	62.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	71.2%	59.5%	61.8%	—	64.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	79.9%	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	78.1%	40.1%	52.5%	—	69.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	76.0%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	69.3%	58.7%	81.6%	—	65.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	72.9%	41.1%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	74.9%	41.8%	33.9%	—	57.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	83.5%	45.3%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	78.2%	56.8%	37.6%	—	53.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	78.9%	84.2%	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	81.0%	57.2%	53.1%	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	82.4%	54.2%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	68.9%	45.6%	37.1%	—	86.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	73.3%	61.1%	40.0%	—	97.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	93.9%	59.2%	75.8%	99.5%	97.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	90.8%	60.7%	61.9%	—	83.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	98.6%	84.1%	75.4%	99.4%	97.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	99.3%	75.2%	73.1%	—	98.5%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	98.7%	92.1%	73.9%	99.8%	98.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	98.4%	98.4%	54.2%	—	98.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	98.7%	99.1%	47.1%	99.5%	95.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	35.2%	20.2%	21.3%	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	12.5%	7.1%	1.5%	0.1%	12.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.0%	14.1%	6.3%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	64.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.7921
ICON	84%	62.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.7022
WeatherNext 2	67%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.4516
AIFS Single	56%	59.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.3080
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.3036
IFS HRES	55%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2970
National Blend	33%	57.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1069

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗