KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

84%

67%

56%

55%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.8¢Risks 71.75u

HRESNO 28.2¢Risks 28.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.25u · HRES −28.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:05+00:00	65.2%	87.2%	77.4%	50.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	65.2%	87.8%	77.4%	50.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	65.2%	88.2%	77.4%	50.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	65.2%	88.2%	61.6%	50.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	65.2%	88.2%	61.6%	50.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	65.2%	88.2%	61.6%	50.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	64.4%	88.2%	61.6%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	64.4%	88.2%	61.6%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	64.4%	88.2%	61.6%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	64.4%	88.2%	61.6%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	64.4%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	64.4%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	64.4%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	64.4%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	61.1%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	61.1%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	61.1%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T04:15:52+00:00	61.1%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	61.1%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	61.1%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	61.1%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	61.1%	88.2%	59.5%	49.2%	82.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:00	61.9%	88.2%	59.5%	54.5%	83.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	61.9%	88.2%	59.5%	54.5%	83.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	61.9%	88.2%	59.5%	54.5%	83.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	61.9%	88.2%	59.5%	54.5%	83.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	61.9%	88.2%	59.5%	54.5%	83.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	61.9%	89.0%	67.2%	54.5%	83.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	61.9%	89.0%	67.2%	54.5%	83.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	61.9%	89.0%	67.2%	54.5%	83.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	55.5%	89.0%	67.2%	54.5%	83.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	55.5%	89.0%	67.2%	54.5%	83.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	64.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.7921
ICON	84%	62.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.7022
WeatherNext 2	67%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.4516
AIFS Single	56%	59.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.3080
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.3036
IFS HRES	55%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2970
National Blend	33%	57.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1069

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗