KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

66%

31%

17%

16%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

WN2NO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.50u · WN2 −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	77.3%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	80.7%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	63.9%	93.0%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	80.1%	86.3%	14.5%	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	98.6%	67.7%	69.0%	—	37.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	94.4%	74.9%	48.5%	—	26.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	33.0%	22.4%	24.2%	—	26.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	42.7%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	39.3%	9.7%	16.2%	—	29.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	35.8%	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	27.7%	19.0%	42.2%	—	24.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	30.2%	8.8%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	31.4%	8.6%	5.8%	—	16.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	41.5%	9.6%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	33.0%	14.7%	6.2%	—	13.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	32.6%	40.1%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	34.0%	13.4%	11.3%	—	17.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	34.5%	11.1%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	19.0%	7.0%	4.5%	—	39.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	21.4%	12.9%	4.8%	—	69.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	53.5%	11.0%	22.4%	86.6%	66.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	42.8%	10.8%	11.4%	—	29.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	73.4%	28.7%	19.1%	82.6%	63.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	80.0%	17.4%	15.8%	—	70.9%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	70.5%	39.4%	14.9%	88.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	65.0%	65.0%	5.0%	—	70.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	65.5%	70.7%	2.9%	76.6%	44.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	0.3%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	95%	75.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.9101
IFS Ensemble	66%	66.7°F	7.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4422
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2905
IFS HRES	31%	60.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0986
National Blend	29%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0818
AIFS Single	17%	58.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0286
WeatherNext 2	16%	59.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0243

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗