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KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
95%
EPS
66%
HRES
31%
AIFS
17%
WN2
16%
Consensus
38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u
VS
WN2NO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.50u · WN2 −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.5% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.5% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:00IFS HRES: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS HRES: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00IFS HRES: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00IFS HRES: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00IFS HRES: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS HRES: 31.3% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00IFS HRES: 31.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00ICON: 95.6% · 2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00ICON: 95.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:0010-11 04:3010-11 09:4810-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:0014.4%63.8%14.5%36.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:0014.4%63.8%20.7%36.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:0014.4%63.8%20.7%36.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:0014.4%63.8%20.7%36.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:0018.4%63.8%20.7%31.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:0018.4%63.8%20.7%31.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:0018.4%63.8%20.7%31.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:0018.4%63.8%20.7%31.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:0018.4%63.8%20.7%31.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:0018.4%66.7%15.5%31.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:0018.4%66.7%15.5%31.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:0018.4%66.7%15.5%31.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:0016.8%66.7%15.5%31.3%95.6%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:0016.9%66.5%15.6%31.4%95.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON95%75.3°F7.0°F2026-10-10 12:000.9101
IFS Ensemble66%66.7°F7.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.4422
NWS forecast54%64.0°F5.1°F2026-10-11 02:000.2905
IFS HRES31%60.7°F5.8°F2026-10-11 00:000.0986
National Blend29%61.0°F4.4°F2026-10-11 06:000.0818
AIFS Single17%58.8°F4.9°F2026-10-11 06:000.0286
WeatherNext 216%59.4°F4.0°F2026-10-11 00:000.0243

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗