WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 10 · 00:30 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
39%
EPS
15%
HRES
5%
AIFS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 19.4¢Risks 19.45u
VS
WN2NO 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.55u · WN2 −80.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T19:58:54+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T21:29:19+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T19:58:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T21:29:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.9% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T19:58:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T21:29:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00IFS HRES: 5.4% · 2026-10-09T19:58:54+00:00IFS HRES: 5.4% · 2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00IFS HRES: 5.4% · 2026-10-09T21:29:19+00:00IFS HRES: 5.4% · 2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 5.4% · 2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00IFS HRES: 5.4% · 2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00IFS HRES: 5.4% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-09T19:58:54+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-09T21:29:19+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:0010-09 19:5810-09 22:1410-10 00:30
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T19:58:54+00:001.1%14.9%0.1%5.4%38.8%
2026-10-09T20:44:03+00:001.1%14.9%0.1%5.4%38.8%
2026-10-09T21:29:19+00:001.1%14.9%0.1%5.4%38.8%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:001.1%14.9%0.1%5.4%38.8%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:001.1%14.9%0.1%5.4%38.8%
2026-10-09T23:44:50+00:001.1%14.9%0.1%5.4%38.8%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:001.1%14.9%0.1%5.4%38.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON39%72.7°F9.8°F2026-10-09 12:000.1505
IFS Ensemble15%67.8°F7.4°F2026-10-09 00:000.0222
National Blend6%63.0°F8.0°F2026-10-09 06:000.0036
IFS HRES5%65.3°F6.3°F2026-10-09 12:000.0029
AIFS Single1%62.8°F5.6°F2026-10-09 12:000.0001
WeatherNext 2<1%60.8°F4.9°F2026-10-09 06:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 09 · 19:58 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗