KORD / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 10 · 00:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.4¢Risks 19.45u

WN2NO 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.55u · WN2 −80.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	15.5%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	89.0%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	13.7%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.7%	28.8%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	10.2%	15.3%	0.1%	—	0.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	49.3%	4.1%	4.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	23.9%	5.2%	1.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	39%	72.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.1505
IFS Ensemble	15%	67.8°F	7.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.0222
National Blend	6%	63.0°F	8.0°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.0036
IFS HRES	5%	65.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0029
AIFS Single	1%	62.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 09 · 19:58 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗