KORD / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

88%

87%

82%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 90.3¢Risks 45.15u

HRESNO 9.7¢Risks 4.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.85u · HRES −4.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	79.1%	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	58.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	65.4%	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	20.2%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	19.3%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	81.5%	68.2%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	45.1%	8.2%	82.9%	—	63.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	2.8%	91.3%	—	53.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	76.6%	13.8%	93.0%	—	56.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	80.0%	52.4%	50.0%	—	64.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	38.7%	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	92.0%	56.6%	89.9%	—	61.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	87.7%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	84.4%	68.6%	72.4%	—	59.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	90.0%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	79.7%	74.1%	64.4%	—	52.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	73.9%	74.7%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	79.7%	75.3%	67.0%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	76.6%	74.3%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	82.4%	76.5%	66.0%	—	44.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	73.0%	71.2%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	74.5%	72.7%	67.9%	2.1%	46.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	82.5%	70.4%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	70.0%	77.6%	74.9%	—	51.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	59.5%	82.5%	66.4%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	70.2%	83.4%	75.4%	32.0%	57.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	61.5%	83.4%	65.1%	—	56.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	65.7%	86.6%	66.9%	35.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	62.3%	81.8%	63.7%	—	52.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	64.2%	86.2%	66.9%	55.8%	45.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	61.9%	85.6%	70.2%	—	44.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	48.4%	86.6%	62.4%	50.0%	36.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	70.5%	90.1%	75.9%	—	51.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	62.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0004
WeatherNext 2	95%	61.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0023
ICON	88%	61.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0154
AIFS Single	87%	60.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0161
IFS HRES	82%	59.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0306
National Blend	59%	56.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1689
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗