KORD / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

78%

68%

50%

28%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.6¢Risks 59.55u

ICONNO 40.4¢Risks 40.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.45u · ICON −40.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	69.7%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	53.6%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	12.5%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	11.7%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	71.2%	55.4%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	31.7%	4.0%	72.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	1.1%	83.9%	—	39.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	63.5%	7.0%	86.2%	—	41.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	67.0%	36.7%	34.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	24.3%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	83.8%	40.1%	80.5%	—	45.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	76.7%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	71.6%	51.7%	56.1%	—	42.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	79.8%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	64.4%	57.3%	46.3%	—	34.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	56.6%	57.5%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	63.4%	57.7%	48.0%	—	26.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	58.9%	56.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	66.0%	58.2%	45.9%	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	53.2%	51.1%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	54.4%	52.2%	46.7%	0.5%	26.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	64.3%	48.9%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	47.7%	57.0%	53.5%	—	28.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	35.9%	63.0%	42.8%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	46.3%	63.4%	52.5%	13.7%	33.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	36.1%	62.7%	39.8%	—	31.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	39.4%	66.9%	40.7%	14.9%	30.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	35.0%	58.3%	36.3%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	35.8%	64.2%	38.6%	28.0%	20.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	32.5%	61.9%	41.0%	—	18.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	20.3%	62.4%	31.7%	21.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	38.6%	67.6%	45.1%	—	21.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	60.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0072
WeatherNext 2	78%	58.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0506
AIFS Single	68%	58.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1050
National Blend	59%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	50%	56.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2500
ICON	28%	54.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5242

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗