KORD / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

54%

48%

30%

12%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

ICONNO 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.45u · ICON −55.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	58.7%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	41.6%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	7.1%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	6.5%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	58.7%	41.9%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	20.4%	1.8%	59.7%	—	36.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.4%	73.4%	—	26.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	48.5%	3.2%	76.1%	—	27.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	51.6%	23.0%	21.2%	—	33.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	13.5%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	71.4%	25.1%	67.0%	—	29.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	61.8%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	55.2%	34.6%	38.8%	—	26.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	64.9%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	46.3%	39.1%	28.9%	—	19.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	37.9%	38.8%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	44.2%	38.5%	29.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	39.1%	36.3%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	45.9%	37.8%	26.8%	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	32.6%	30.7%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	33.1%	31.1%	26.4%	0.1%	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	42.2%	27.6%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	26.0%	34.1%	31.0%	—	12.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	16.7%	39.3%	21.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	23.6%	38.9%	28.7%	4.3%	14.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	15.8%	37.3%	18.2%	—	12.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	17.3%	40.7%	18.2%	4.3%	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	13.9%	31.2%	14.7%	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	13.8%	35.8%	15.4%	9.5%	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	11.2%	32.5%	16.2%	—	4.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	5.2%	31.7%	10.2%	5.7%	2.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	13.2%	35.5%	17.0%	—	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	60.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5898
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
WeatherNext 2	54%	58.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2927
AIFS Single	48%	58.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2304
IFS HRES	30%	56.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0870
National Blend	23%	57.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0520
ICON	12%	54.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0151

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261017-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗