KORD / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

54%

48%

30%

12%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

ICONNO 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.45u · ICON −55.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:52+00:00	59.7%	84.8%	67.9%	49.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	59.7%	84.8%	67.9%	49.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	59.7%	84.8%	67.9%	49.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	59.7%	84.8%	67.9%	49.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	59.7%	84.8%	67.9%	49.3%	81.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:00	44.8%	84.8%	67.9%	41.3%	67.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	44.8%	84.8%	67.9%	41.3%	67.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	44.8%	84.8%	67.9%	41.3%	67.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	44.8%	84.8%	67.9%	41.3%	67.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	44.8%	84.8%	67.9%	41.3%	67.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	44.8%	77.5%	45.7%	41.3%	67.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	44.8%	77.5%	45.7%	41.3%	67.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	44.8%	77.5%	45.7%	41.3%	67.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	40.6%	77.5%	45.7%	41.3%	67.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	40.6%	77.5%	45.7%	41.3%	67.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:27+00:00	40.6%	80.0%	45.7%	41.3%	67.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	40.6%	80.0%	45.7%	41.3%	67.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	40.6%	80.0%	51.1%	41.3%	67.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	40.6%	80.0%	51.1%	41.3%	67.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	40.6%	80.0%	51.1%	41.3%	67.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	40.6%	80.0%	51.1%	41.3%	67.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	41.4%	80.0%	51.1%	41.3%	59.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	41.4%	80.0%	51.1%	41.3%	59.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	41.4%	80.0%	51.1%	41.3%	59.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	41.4%	80.0%	51.1%	41.3%	59.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	41.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	41.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	41.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	36.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	36.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00	36.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	36.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	36.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	36.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	36.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	36.4%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	59.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	41.7%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	51.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	41.7%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	51.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	41.7%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	51.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	41.7%	80.0%	48.9%	30.9%	51.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:57+00:00	41.7%	80.0%	48.9%	28.0%	51.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	41.7%	75.1%	48.8%	28.0%	51.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	41.7%	75.1%	48.8%	28.0%	51.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	41.7%	75.1%	48.8%	28.0%	51.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	45.4%	75.1%	48.8%	28.0%	51.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	45.4%	74.9%	48.8%	28.0%	51.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:54+00:00	48.1%	75.5%	51.2%	31.9%	53.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	48.1%	75.5%	51.2%	31.9%	53.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	48.1%	75.5%	51.2%	31.9%	53.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	48.1%	75.5%	51.2%	31.9%	53.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:41+00:00	46.1%	75.5%	51.2%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	46.1%	75.5%	51.2%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	46.1%	75.5%	51.2%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	46.1%	75.5%	51.2%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	46.1%	75.5%	51.2%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	46.1%	75.5%	46.1%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	46.1%	75.0%	46.1%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	46.1%	75.0%	46.1%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	52.0%	75.0%	46.1%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	52.0%	74.4%	46.1%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	52.0%	71.1%	46.1%	27.9%	29.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00	48.0%	76.8%	52.7%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	48.0%	76.8%	54.1%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	48.0%	76.8%	54.1%	29.5%	12.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	48.0%	76.8%	54.1%	29.5%	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	60.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5898
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
WeatherNext 2	54%	58.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2927
AIFS Single	48%	58.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2304
IFS HRES	30%	56.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0870
National Blend	23%	57.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0520
ICON	12%	54.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0151

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261017-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗