KORD / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

83%

80%

71%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.1¢Risks 82.10u

HRESNO 17.9¢Risks 17.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +17.90u · HRES −17.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	1.4%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	2.5%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	2.7%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	57.7%	34.9%	50.0%	—	59.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	67.0%	57.3%	76.3%	—	58.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	69.7%	68.4%	87.5%	—	64.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	84.6%	69.8%	81.6%	—	63.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	16.3%	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	87.5%	85.2%	69.2%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	73.3%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.6%	75.9%	85.4%	75.2%	—	47.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	75.8%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	73.4%	82.8%	71.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	74.7%	76.2%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	76.8%	73.7%	74.5%	—	53.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	78.1%	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	74.1%	76.5%	74.1%	—	59.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	63.5%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	66.9%	71.8%	81.0%	—	61.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	62.2%	72.4%	0.3%	—	62.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	57.0%	79.3%	74.0%	—	63.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	56.0%	80.1%	77.5%	—	61.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	51.2%	86.3%	74.4%	22.7%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	50.0%	87.2%	76.2%	—	53.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	44.6%	88.0%	70.5%	17.3%	48.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.0%	63.7%	88.2%	70.0%	—	51.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	75.5%	89.8%	73.2%	30.5%	58.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	76.4%	85.6%	63.3%	—	36.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	76.2%	89.8%	63.9%	29.0%	53.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	93.7%	94.7%	85.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	67.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	66.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	63.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	65.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	74%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	63.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗