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KORD / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
93%
WN2
92%
EPS
83%
ICON
80%
HRES
71%
Consensus
85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 82.1¢Risks 82.10u
VS
HRESNO 17.9¢Risks 17.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +17.90u · HRES −17.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T04:01:22+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-12T07:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00AIFS Single: 93.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00AIFS Single: 93.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T04:01:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T07:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.2% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.2% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.2% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.9% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.4% · 2026-10-12T04:01:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.4% · 2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T07:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T04:01:22+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00IFS HRES: 70.8% · 2026-10-12T07:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 70.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS HRES: 70.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 70.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS HRES: 70.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS HRES: 70.8% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00IFS HRES: 70.8% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00IFS HRES: 70.8% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS HRES: 70.8% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00IFS HRES: 70.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T04:01:22+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00ICON: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T07:48:19+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:0010-12 04:0110-12 09:1910-12 14:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T04:01:22+00:0087.0%73.5%84.4%71.5%71.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:0087.0%73.5%84.4%71.5%71.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:0087.0%73.5%87.5%71.5%71.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:0087.0%73.5%87.5%71.5%71.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:0087.0%73.5%87.5%71.5%71.5%
2026-10-12T07:48:19+00:0085.9%73.5%87.5%70.8%80.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:0085.9%73.5%87.5%70.8%80.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:0085.9%73.5%87.5%70.8%80.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:0085.9%73.5%87.5%70.8%80.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:0085.9%73.5%87.5%70.8%80.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:0085.9%73.5%92.3%70.8%80.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:0085.9%83.2%92.3%70.8%80.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:0085.9%83.2%92.3%70.8%80.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:0093.4%83.2%92.3%70.8%80.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:0093.4%82.9%92.3%70.8%80.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single93%67.5°F5.3°F2026-10-12 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 292%66.0°F4.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble83%63.2°F3.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON80%65.4°F7.0°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend74%63.0°F5.5°F2026-10-12 06:00Pending
IFS HRES71%63.1°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%60.0°F5.8°F2026-10-12 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗