KORD / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

77%

67%

45%

15%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.85u · ICON −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	43.7%	23.0%	36.2%	—	45.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	52.9%	42.7%	63.6%	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	55.3%	53.8%	77.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	73.2%	54.8%	69.2%	—	47.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	8.2%	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	76.8%	73.5%	53.3%	—	42.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	57.6%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	60.4%	73.1%	59.6%	—	30.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	59.8%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	56.4%	68.6%	54.6%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	57.5%	59.4%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	59.6%	55.8%	56.8%	—	34.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	60.9%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	55.1%	58.2%	55.1%	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	42.6%	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	45.6%	51.1%	62.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	40.0%	51.1%	0.0%	—	40.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	34.1%	59.2%	52.3%	—	40.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	32.5%	59.5%	56.0%	—	38.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	27.6%	68.0%	51.2%	8.5%	34.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	25.9%	68.7%	52.6%	—	29.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	21.0%	69.3%	44.6%	5.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	36.3%	68.8%	43.1%	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	48.5%	70.7%	45.7%	10.8%	30.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	48.5%	61.9%	33.8%	—	13.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	46.8%	68.3%	33.1%	8.9%	23.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	75.9%	78.5%	58.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	64.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	64.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	62.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	61.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	57.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗