KORD / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

77%

67%

45%

15%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.85u · ICON −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00	85.3%	85.8%	80.5%	50.9%	66.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	85.3%	85.8%	82.1%	50.9%	66.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	85.3%	85.8%	82.1%	50.9%	66.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	85.3%	85.8%	82.1%	50.9%	66.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	85.3%	85.8%	82.1%	50.9%	66.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	81.3%	85.8%	82.1%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	81.3%	85.8%	82.1%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	81.3%	85.8%	82.1%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	81.3%	85.8%	82.1%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	81.3%	85.8%	78.0%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	81.3%	85.8%	78.0%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	81.3%	85.8%	78.0%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	80.0%	85.8%	78.0%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	80.0%	85.8%	78.0%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	80.0%	85.8%	78.0%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	80.0%	85.8%	78.0%	53.6%	61.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00	80.6%	79.6%	76.5%	54.3%	18.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	80.6%	79.6%	76.5%	54.3%	18.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	80.6%	79.6%	76.5%	54.3%	18.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	80.6%	79.6%	70.9%	54.3%	18.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	80.6%	79.6%	70.9%	54.3%	18.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	80.6%	79.6%	70.9%	54.3%	18.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	75.3%	79.6%	70.9%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	75.3%	79.6%	70.9%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	75.3%	79.6%	70.9%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	75.3%	79.6%	70.9%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	75.3%	79.6%	70.9%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	75.3%	79.6%	67.2%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	75.3%	79.6%	67.2%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	75.3%	79.6%	67.2%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	76.9%	79.6%	67.2%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	76.9%	79.6%	67.2%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	76.9%	79.6%	67.2%	44.7%	14.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	64.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	64.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	62.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	61.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	57.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗