KORD / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

74%

32%

18%

14%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.9¢Risks 45.85u

ICONNO 54.1¢Risks 54.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.15u · ICON −54.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	17.6%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	7.0%	51.3%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	41.6%	45.1%	20.4%	—	23.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	21.5%	5.5%	29.7%	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	28.9%	19.5%	16.4%	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	35.9%	20.6%	18.4%	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	1.2%	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	24.5%	38.5%	23.2%	—	12.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	13.7%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	34.6%	33.8%	15.1%	—	10.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	15.0%	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	11.9%	28.2%	8.3%	—	11.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	21.0%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	19.0%	40.4%	14.2%	—	10.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	11.9%	38.2%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	15.1%	44.9%	15.1%	—	10.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	14.4%	42.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	10.9%	46.7%	11.9%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	10.7%	46.6%	0.0%	—	7.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	10.5%	44.2%	9.0%	7.2%	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	19.1%	46.4%	6.6%	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	25.6%	48.8%	10.6%	0.0%	7.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	22.8%	46.1%	6.4%	—	3.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	20.0%	48.7%	3.0%	5.3%	4.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	33.8%	45.8%	4.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	42.8%	48.5%	5.9%	9.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	69.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	67.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	64.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	63.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗