KORD / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

74%

32%

18%

14%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.9¢Risks 45.85u

ICONNO 54.1¢Risks 54.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.15u · ICON −54.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:53+00:00	56.4%	42.1%	50.0%	35.8%	63.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	56.4%	42.1%	50.0%	35.8%	63.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	56.4%	42.1%	56.4%	35.8%	63.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	56.4%	42.1%	56.4%	35.8%	63.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	56.4%	42.1%	56.4%	35.8%	63.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:27+00:00	69.4%	42.1%	56.4%	42.1%	45.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	69.4%	42.1%	56.4%	42.1%	45.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	69.4%	42.1%	56.4%	42.1%	45.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	69.4%	42.1%	56.4%	42.1%	45.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	69.4%	42.1%	56.4%	42.1%	45.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	69.4%	28.2%	55.2%	42.1%	45.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	69.4%	28.2%	55.2%	42.1%	45.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	69.4%	28.2%	55.2%	42.1%	45.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	70.8%	28.2%	55.2%	42.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	70.8%	28.2%	55.2%	42.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:27+00:00	70.8%	32.3%	55.2%	42.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	70.8%	32.3%	55.2%	42.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	70.8%	32.3%	56.9%	42.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	70.8%	32.3%	56.9%	42.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	70.8%	32.3%	56.9%	42.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	70.8%	32.3%	56.9%	42.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	66.1%	32.3%	56.9%	42.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	66.1%	32.3%	56.9%	42.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	66.1%	32.3%	56.9%	42.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	66.1%	32.3%	56.9%	42.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	66.1%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	66.1%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	66.1%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	59.7%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	59.7%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00	59.7%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	59.7%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	59.7%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	59.7%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	59.7%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	59.7%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	68.6%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	55.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	68.6%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	55.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	68.6%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	55.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	68.6%	32.3%	66.1%	48.8%	55.4%
2026-10-14T10:32:57+00:00	68.6%	32.3%	66.1%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	68.6%	25.2%	59.6%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	68.6%	25.2%	59.6%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	68.6%	25.2%	59.6%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	70.0%	25.2%	59.6%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	70.0%	25.2%	59.6%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	70.0%	25.7%	59.6%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	70.0%	25.7%	59.6%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	70.0%	25.7%	59.6%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	70.0%	25.7%	54.8%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	70.0%	25.7%	54.8%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	70.0%	25.7%	54.8%	28.4%	55.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	54.8%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	54.8%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	54.8%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	54.8%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	54.8%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	58.7%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	58.7%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	58.7%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	58.7%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	58.7%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	58.7%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:09+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	58.7%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:54+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	58.7%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	59.6%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	59.6%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	67.1%	25.7%	59.6%	25.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:42+00:00	65.2%	25.7%	59.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	65.2%	25.7%	59.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	65.2%	25.7%	59.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	65.2%	25.7%	59.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	65.2%	25.7%	59.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	65.2%	25.7%	60.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	65.2%	33.0%	60.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	65.2%	33.0%	60.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	67.6%	33.0%	60.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	67.6%	33.0%	60.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	67.6%	28.8%	60.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00	67.6%	28.8%	60.6%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	67.6%	28.8%	57.5%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	67.6%	28.8%	57.5%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	67.6%	28.8%	57.5%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	67.6%	28.8%	57.5%	26.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	64.4%	28.8%	57.5%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	64.4%	28.8%	57.5%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	64.4%	28.8%	57.5%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	64.4%	28.8%	57.5%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	64.4%	28.8%	61.6%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	64.4%	28.8%	61.6%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	64.4%	28.8%	61.6%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	63.6%	28.8%	61.6%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	63.6%	28.8%	61.6%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	63.6%	28.8%	61.6%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	63.6%	28.8%	61.6%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	63.6%	28.8%	61.6%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	63.6%	28.8%	58.5%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	63.6%	28.8%	58.5%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	63.6%	28.8%	58.5%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	63.6%	28.8%	58.5%	26.8%	24.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	61.9%	28.8%	58.5%	26.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	61.9%	28.8%	58.5%	26.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	61.9%	28.8%	58.5%	26.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	61.9%	28.8%	58.5%	26.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	61.9%	32.3%	58.2%	26.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	61.9%	32.3%	58.2%	26.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	61.9%	32.3%	58.2%	26.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	61.9%	32.3%	58.2%	26.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	62.8%	32.3%	58.2%	20.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	62.8%	31.0%	58.2%	20.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	58.2%	20.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	58.2%	20.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	60.5%	20.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	60.5%	20.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	60.5%	20.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	60.5%	20.4%	20.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	60.5%	20.4%	20.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	60.5%	20.4%	20.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	60.5%	20.4%	20.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	60.5%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	65.0%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	65.0%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	65.0%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	65.0%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	65.0%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	65.0%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	65.0%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	65.0%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	67.2%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	67.2%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	68.0%	30.9%	67.2%	25.8%	20.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00	69.7%	30.9%	67.2%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	69.7%	30.9%	67.2%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	69.7%	30.9%	67.2%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	69.7%	30.9%	67.2%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	69.7%	30.9%	67.2%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	69.7%	34.9%	63.9%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	69.7%	34.9%	63.9%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	69.7%	34.9%	63.9%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	68.8%	34.9%	63.9%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	68.9%	35.2%	63.9%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00	68.9%	29.3%	63.9%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	68.9%	29.3%	63.9%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	68.9%	29.3%	63.9%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	68.9%	29.3%	61.4%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	68.9%	29.3%	61.4%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	68.9%	29.3%	61.4%	23.2%	8.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	62.6%	29.3%	61.4%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	62.6%	29.3%	61.4%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	62.6%	29.3%	61.4%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	62.6%	29.3%	61.4%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	62.6%	29.3%	61.4%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	62.6%	29.3%	57.7%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	62.6%	29.3%	57.7%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	62.6%	29.3%	57.7%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	65.3%	29.3%	57.7%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	65.3%	29.3%	57.7%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	65.3%	29.3%	57.7%	18.3%	9.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00	73.7%	32.2%	58.2%	18.0%	14.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	73.7%	32.2%	77.5%	18.0%	14.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	73.7%	32.2%	77.5%	18.0%	14.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	73.7%	32.2%	77.5%	18.0%	14.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	69.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	67.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	64.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	63.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗