KORD / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

65%

30%

27%

27%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.1¢Risks 52.10u

HRESNO 47.9¢Risks 47.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.90u · HRES −47.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	23.6%	—	44.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	57.1%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	6.5%	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	47.4%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	15.6%	—	39.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	37.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	10.2%	34.2%	—	27.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	72.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	36.2%	54.2%	6.9%	14.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	63.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	27.9%	35.0%	8.4%	17.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	46.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	31.6%	34.4%	24.5%	20.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	49.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	37.5%	42.1%	23.0%	13.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.2%	33.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	22.5%	36.1%	18.9%	20.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	1.1%	34.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	3.8%	43.9%	13.6%	19.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	10.8%	42.9%	—	17.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	7.3%	42.7%	8.6%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	21.0%	40.6%	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	15.9%	42.3%	8.2%	13.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	18.3%	43.0%	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	16.3%	41.8%	3.8%	9.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	28.8%	43.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	33.1%	46.7%	5.9%	11.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	35.7%	46.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	72.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	72.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	30%	68.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	68.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	69.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗