KORD / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

59%

56%

27%

22%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.5¢Risks 42.50u

HRESNO 57.5¢Risks 57.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +57.50u · HRES −57.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	18.1%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	19.3%	—	38.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	51.2%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	4.8%	—	31.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	41.1%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	12.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	31.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	7.5%	28.2%	—	22.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	66.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	29.8%	47.2%	4.9%	10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	56.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	22.1%	28.5%	5.9%	13.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	38.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	25.1%	27.7%	18.9%	15.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	41.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	30.1%	34.5%	17.4%	9.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	0.1%	26.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	16.8%	28.6%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	0.6%	26.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	2.3%	35.4%	9.4%	13.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	7.1%	34.2%	—	12.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	4.6%	33.9%	5.5%	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	14.8%	31.8%	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	10.7%	33.0%	5.1%	8.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	12.4%	33.5%	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	10.8%	32.1%	2.1%	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	20.5%	33.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	23.8%	36.1%	3.3%	7.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	25.8%	35.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	73.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	56%	73.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	69.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	66.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 72°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗