KORD / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

59%

56%

27%

22%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.5¢Risks 42.50u

HRESNO 57.5¢Risks 57.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +57.50u · HRES −57.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:57+00:00	88.7%	41.9%	65.8%	40.0%	34.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	88.7%	25.2%	77.1%	40.0%	34.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	88.7%	25.2%	77.1%	40.0%	34.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	88.7%	25.2%	77.1%	40.0%	34.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	79.3%	25.2%	77.1%	40.0%	34.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	79.3%	25.2%	77.0%	40.0%	34.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	79.3%	26.7%	77.0%	40.0%	34.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	79.3%	26.7%	77.0%	40.0%	34.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	79.3%	26.7%	77.0%	40.0%	34.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	79.3%	26.7%	67.0%	40.0%	34.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	79.3%	26.7%	67.0%	40.0%	34.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	79.3%	26.7%	67.0%	40.0%	34.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	57.8%	26.7%	67.0%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	57.8%	26.7%	67.0%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	57.8%	26.7%	67.0%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	57.8%	26.7%	67.0%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	57.8%	26.7%	67.0%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	57.8%	26.7%	58.7%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	57.8%	26.7%	58.7%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	57.8%	26.7%	58.7%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	62.6%	26.7%	58.7%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	62.6%	26.7%	58.7%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	62.6%	26.7%	58.7%	22.4%	56.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:09+00:00	62.6%	26.7%	58.7%	22.4%	56.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	73.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	56%	73.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	69.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	66.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 72°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗