KORD / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

43%

16%

10%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.3¢Risks 27.25u

ICONNO 72.8¢Risks 72.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.75u · ICON −72.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	14.7%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	15.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	45.2%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	3.4%	—	26.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	35.0%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	9.0%	—	27.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	25.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	5.4%	22.8%	—	17.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	60.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	24.1%	40.3%	3.3%	7.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	49.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	17.0%	22.6%	4.1%	10.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	32.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	19.5%	21.6%	14.2%	11.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	34.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	23.6%	27.4%	12.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	0.0%	20.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	12.0%	21.9%	9.7%	10.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	0.3%	20.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	1.3%	27.7%	6.2%	9.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	4.5%	26.4%	—	8.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	2.8%	25.9%	3.4%	5.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	10.0%	23.8%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	6.8%	24.7%	3.0%	5.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	8.0%	24.9%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	6.7%	23.5%	1.1%	3.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	13.8%	24.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	16.2%	26.4%	1.7%	4.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	17.5%	25.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	72.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	71.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	67.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	69.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	65.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗