KORD / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

43%

16%

10%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.3¢Risks 27.25u

ICONNO 72.8¢Risks 72.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.75u · ICON −72.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:47:54+00:00	55.7%	18.6%	50.8%	18.0%	52.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	55.7%	18.6%	52.4%	18.0%	52.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	55.7%	18.6%	52.4%	18.0%	52.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	55.7%	18.6%	52.4%	18.0%	52.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:42+00:00	67.2%	18.6%	52.4%	18.5%	41.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	67.2%	18.6%	52.4%	18.5%	41.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	67.2%	18.6%	52.4%	18.5%	41.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	67.2%	18.6%	52.4%	18.5%	41.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	67.2%	18.6%	52.4%	18.5%	41.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	67.2%	18.6%	56.8%	18.5%	41.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	67.2%	8.4%	56.8%	18.5%	41.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	67.2%	8.4%	56.8%	18.5%	41.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	55.9%	8.4%	56.8%	18.5%	41.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	55.9%	8.4%	56.8%	18.6%	41.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	55.9%	7.5%	56.8%	18.6%	41.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	57.4%	22.4%	4.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	57.4%	22.4%	4.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	57.4%	22.4%	4.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	57.4%	22.4%	4.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	57.4%	22.4%	4.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	57.4%	22.4%	4.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	43.1%	9.7%	57.4%	16.4%	8.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	43.1%	9.7%	57.4%	16.4%	8.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	43.1%	9.7%	57.4%	16.4%	8.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	43.1%	9.7%	57.4%	16.4%	8.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	43.1%	9.7%	57.4%	16.4%	8.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	43.1%	9.7%	42.6%	16.4%	8.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	43.1%	9.7%	42.6%	16.4%	8.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	43.1%	9.7%	42.6%	16.4%	8.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	45.7%	9.7%	42.6%	16.4%	8.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	45.7%	9.7%	42.6%	16.4%	8.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	45.7%	9.7%	42.6%	16.4%	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	72.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	71.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	67.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	69.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	65.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗