KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

84%

73%

69%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.9¢Risks 82.95u

EPSNO 17.1¢Risks 17.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.05u · EPS −17.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	37.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	31.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	30.2%	—	45.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	58.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	56.5%	—	26.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	86.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	12.8%	55.4%	—	43.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	77.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	82.9%	74.8%	39.6%	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	82.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	44.9%	22.1%	31.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	17.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	39.4%	80.5%	35.8%	50.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	82.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	26.1%	50.0%	46.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	7.9%	49.2%	—	40.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	24.5%	82.2%	17.3%	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	35.0%	80.5%	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	29.9%	82.2%	28.4%	39.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	27.9%	85.5%	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	31.4%	83.4%	19.0%	31.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	41.5%	85.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	51.9%	88.4%	18.3%	43.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	50.0%	90.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	76.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	77.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	84%	77.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	71.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	69.4°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	68.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗