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KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
97%
AIFS
95%
ICON
84%
HRES
73%
EPS
69%
Consensus
87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 82.9¢Risks 82.95u
VS
EPSNO 17.1¢Risks 17.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.05u · EPS −17.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:0097.3%79.4%94.0%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:0097.3%71.5%94.0%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:0097.3%71.5%94.0%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:0096.9%71.5%94.0%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:0096.7%71.5%93.8%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:0096.7%69.1%93.8%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:0096.7%69.1%93.8%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:0096.7%69.1%94.9%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:0096.7%69.1%94.9%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:0096.7%69.1%94.9%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:0096.7%69.1%94.9%45.0%41.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:0096.5%69.1%94.9%72.9%84.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:0096.5%69.1%94.9%72.9%84.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:0096.5%69.1%94.9%72.9%84.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:0096.5%69.1%94.9%72.9%84.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:0096.5%69.1%96.8%72.9%84.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:0096.4%69.1%96.8%72.8%84.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:0096.4%69.1%96.8%72.8%84.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:0095.2%69.1%96.8%72.8%84.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:0095.2%69.1%96.8%72.8%84.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:0095.2%69.1%96.8%72.8%84.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:0095.2%69.1%96.8%72.8%84.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 297%76.9°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single95%77.0°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
ICON84%77.5°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS HRES73%71.4°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble69%69.4°F3.8°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend53%68.0°F6.6°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗