KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

51%

13%

11%

10%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.0¢Risks 32.00u

HRESNO 68.0¢Risks 68.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.00u · HRES −68.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	15.3%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	10.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	9.6%	—	18.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	27.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	25.7%	—	7.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	59.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	2.4%	23.8%	—	15.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	45.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	52.8%	41.6%	12.6%	16.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	51.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	14.8%	4.6%	8.2%	11.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	3.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	11.0%	46.2%	9.3%	17.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	47.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	5.1%	15.9%	13.6%	10.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	0.8%	14.8%	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	4.1%	45.0%	2.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	7.2%	41.5%	—	8.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	5.2%	43.0%	4.7%	8.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	4.3%	47.3%	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	5.0%	42.7%	2.1%	5.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	8.1%	45.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	12.1%	49.0%	1.7%	8.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	10.5%	51.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	72.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	72.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	13%	67.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	68.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	66.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗