KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

51%

13%

11%

10%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.0¢Risks 32.00u

HRESNO 68.0¢Risks 68.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.00u · HRES −68.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	78.5%	20.7%	80.7%	43.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	78.5%	20.7%	78.4%	43.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	78.5%	20.7%	78.4%	43.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	78.5%	20.7%	78.4%	43.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	78.5%	20.7%	78.4%	43.2%	69.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	76.5%	20.7%	78.4%	43.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	76.5%	20.7%	78.4%	43.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	76.5%	20.7%	78.4%	43.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	76.5%	20.7%	78.4%	43.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	76.5%	11.5%	78.6%	43.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	76.5%	11.5%	78.6%	43.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	76.5%	11.5%	78.6%	43.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	76.5%	11.5%	78.6%	43.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	77.0%	11.5%	78.6%	30.3%	39.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	77.0%	10.9%	78.6%	30.3%	39.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	77.0%	10.8%	78.6%	30.3%	39.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	77.0%	10.8%	78.6%	30.3%	39.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	77.0%	10.8%	81.0%	30.3%	39.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	77.0%	10.8%	81.0%	30.3%	39.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	77.0%	10.8%	81.0%	30.3%	39.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	71.7%	10.8%	81.0%	30.3%	35.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	71.7%	10.8%	81.0%	30.3%	35.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	71.7%	10.8%	81.0%	30.3%	35.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	71.7%	10.8%	81.0%	30.3%	35.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	71.7%	10.8%	81.0%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	71.7%	10.8%	69.6%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	71.7%	10.8%	69.6%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	71.7%	10.8%	69.6%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	73.5%	10.8%	69.6%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	73.5%	10.8%	69.6%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	73.5%	10.8%	69.6%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	73.5%	10.8%	69.6%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00	73.5%	10.8%	69.6%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	73.5%	10.8%	70.4%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	73.5%	10.8%	70.4%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	73.5%	10.8%	70.4%	33.6%	35.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00	69.3%	10.8%	70.4%	28.4%	18.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	69.3%	10.8%	70.4%	28.4%	18.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	69.3%	10.8%	70.4%	28.4%	18.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	69.3%	10.8%	70.4%	28.4%	18.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	69.3%	10.8%	70.4%	28.4%	18.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	69.3%	19.2%	60.6%	28.4%	18.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	69.3%	19.2%	60.6%	28.4%	18.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	69.3%	19.2%	60.6%	28.4%	18.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	66.4%	19.2%	60.6%	28.4%	18.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	66.4%	19.2%	60.6%	28.4%	18.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	50.0%	10.7%	51.1%	23.6%	12.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	50.0%	10.7%	51.1%	23.6%	12.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	50.0%	10.7%	48.9%	23.6%	12.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	50.0%	10.7%	48.9%	23.6%	12.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	50.0%	10.7%	48.9%	23.6%	12.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	50.0%	10.7%	48.9%	23.6%	12.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	48.3%	10.7%	48.9%	9.7%	13.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	48.3%	10.7%	48.9%	9.7%	13.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	48.3%	10.7%	48.9%	9.7%	13.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	48.3%	10.7%	48.9%	9.7%	13.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	48.3%	10.7%	54.3%	9.7%	13.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	48.3%	10.7%	54.3%	9.7%	13.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	48.3%	10.7%	54.3%	9.7%	13.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	50.9%	10.7%	54.3%	9.7%	13.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	50.9%	10.7%	54.3%	9.7%	13.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	50.9%	10.7%	54.3%	9.7%	13.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	50.9%	10.7%	54.3%	9.7%	13.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	72.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	72.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	13%	67.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	68.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	66.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗