KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

47%

17%

10%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

EPSNO 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.00u · EPS −70.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	12.2%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	8.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	7.1%	—	14.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	22.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	20.7%	—	5.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	53.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	1.6%	18.9%	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	39.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	45.8%	34.9%	9.3%	12.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	44.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	10.9%	3.1%	5.7%	8.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	2.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	7.8%	38.7%	6.5%	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	40.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	3.3%	11.5%	9.7%	6.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.4%	10.6%	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	2.6%	36.9%	1.4%	5.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	4.7%	33.4%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	3.2%	34.6%	2.9%	5.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	2.6%	38.5%	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	3.0%	33.9%	1.2%	3.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	5.1%	36.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	7.9%	39.4%	0.9%	5.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	6.6%	41.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	51%	73.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	73.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	26%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	69.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	68.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	69.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗