KORD / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

47%

17%

10%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

EPSNO 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.00u · EPS −70.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:42+00:00	80.3%	23.6%	67.2%	14.2%	20.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	80.3%	23.6%	67.2%	14.2%	20.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	80.3%	23.6%	67.2%	14.2%	20.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	80.3%	23.6%	67.2%	14.2%	20.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	80.3%	23.6%	67.2%	14.2%	20.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00	80.3%	23.6%	64.0%	14.2%	20.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	80.3%	14.6%	64.0%	14.2%	20.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	80.3%	14.6%	64.0%	14.2%	20.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	78.8%	14.6%	64.0%	14.2%	20.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	78.5%	14.6%	63.8%	14.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	78.5%	14.0%	63.8%	14.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00	78.5%	14.0%	63.8%	14.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	78.5%	14.0%	67.5%	14.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	78.5%	14.0%	67.5%	14.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	78.5%	14.0%	67.5%	14.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	78.5%	14.0%	67.5%	14.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	77.5%	14.0%	67.5%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	77.5%	14.0%	67.5%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	77.5%	14.0%	67.5%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	77.5%	14.0%	67.5%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	77.5%	14.0%	74.8%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	77.4%	14.0%	74.8%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	77.4%	14.0%	74.8%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	73.0%	14.0%	74.8%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	73.0%	14.0%	74.8%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	73.0%	14.0%	74.8%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	73.0%	14.0%	74.8%	37.2%	65.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:59+00:00	54.0%	10.0%	41.3%	8.6%	14.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	54.0%	10.0%	51.9%	8.6%	14.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	54.0%	10.0%	51.9%	8.6%	14.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	54.0%	10.0%	51.9%	8.6%	14.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	54.0%	10.0%	51.9%	8.6%	14.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00	50.9%	10.0%	51.9%	17.9%	8.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	50.9%	10.0%	51.9%	17.9%	8.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	50.9%	10.0%	51.9%	17.9%	8.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	50.9%	10.0%	51.9%	17.9%	8.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	50.9%	10.0%	51.9%	17.9%	8.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	50.9%	5.8%	40.5%	17.9%	8.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	50.9%	5.8%	40.5%	17.9%	8.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	50.9%	5.8%	40.5%	17.9%	8.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	41.4%	5.8%	40.5%	17.9%	8.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	41.4%	5.8%	40.5%	17.9%	8.5%
2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00	42.2%	5.6%	43.6%	6.7%	9.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	42.2%	5.6%	47.9%	6.7%	9.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	42.2%	5.6%	47.9%	6.7%	9.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	42.2%	5.6%	47.9%	6.7%	9.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00	47.2%	5.6%	47.9%	17.3%	10.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	47.2%	5.6%	47.9%	17.3%	10.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	47.2%	5.6%	47.9%	17.3%	10.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	47.2%	5.6%	47.9%	17.3%	10.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	47.2%	5.6%	47.9%	17.3%	10.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	47.2%	8.8%	51.2%	17.3%	10.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	47.2%	8.8%	51.2%	17.3%	10.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	51%	73.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	73.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	26%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	69.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	68.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	69.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗