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KORD / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
66%
WN2
62%
ICON
27%
EPS
23%
HRES
6%
Consensus
36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 36.2¢Risks 36.20u
VS
HRESNO 63.8¢Risks 63.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.80u · HRES −63.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 88.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 77.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 66.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 73.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 72.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 71.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 73.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 27.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-13 18:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.0%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.2%———1.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0013.4%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:003.6%———9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:002.7%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0054.2%———8.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0027.9%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0036.4%———9.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0071.7%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0055.8%———11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:009.6%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0049.5%———12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0065.0%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0017.5%———16.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.2%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0059.5%———34.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0034.9%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0053.2%———26.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0040.3%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:007.6%———33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0041.1%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0055.7%———30.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0033.2%—0.0%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0078.2%—0.5%—16.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0023.6%—10.7%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0080.3%———10.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0086.7%—88.6%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0081.5%—12.8%—20.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0066.7%—69.6%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0068.8%—23.1%—21.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0074.2%—77.8%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0063.9%2.8%53.4%—18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0066.1%—3.2%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0047.9%10.5%35.6%11.9%26.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0055.0%—77.0%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0055.8%7.6%66.3%27.2%11.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0053.0%—65.3%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0042.4%1.5%64.2%5.6%11.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0047.7%—61.5%—7.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0046.8%9.7%73.9%9.7%9.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0039.5%0.7%29.7%—5.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0037.7%12.0%72.1%5.8%6.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0040.7%15.2%67.4%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0041.3%21.4%71.6%3.1%5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—15.5%73.6%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single66%72.6°F5.0°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 262%71.8°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%71.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
National Blend37%69.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON27%66.7°F6.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble23%68.1°F3.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES6%61.5°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗