KORD / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

62%

27%

23%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.2¢Risks 36.20u

HRESNO 63.8¢Risks 63.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.80u · HRES −63.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	84.3%	36.9%	87.2%	28.3%	25.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	84.3%	35.9%	87.2%	28.3%	25.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	84.3%	35.9%	87.2%	28.3%	25.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	84.3%	35.9%	87.2%	28.3%	25.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	84.3%	35.9%	86.4%	28.3%	25.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	84.3%	35.9%	86.4%	28.3%	25.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	84.3%	35.9%	86.4%	28.3%	25.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	71.1%	35.9%	86.4%	28.3%	40.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	71.1%	35.9%	86.4%	28.3%	40.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	71.1%	35.9%	86.4%	28.3%	40.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	71.1%	35.9%	86.4%	28.3%	40.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	71.1%	35.9%	86.4%	39.6%	40.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	71.1%	35.9%	78.4%	39.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	71.1%	35.9%	78.4%	39.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	71.1%	35.9%	78.4%	39.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	76.2%	35.9%	78.4%	39.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	76.2%	35.9%	78.4%	39.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	76.2%	35.9%	78.4%	39.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	76.2%	35.9%	78.4%	39.6%	40.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:59+00:00	71.7%	25.4%	55.9%	22.9%	14.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	71.7%	25.4%	70.3%	22.9%	14.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	71.7%	25.4%	70.3%	22.9%	14.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	71.7%	25.4%	70.3%	22.9%	14.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	71.7%	25.4%	70.3%	22.9%	14.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00	72.1%	25.4%	70.3%	6.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	72.1%	25.4%	70.3%	6.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	72.1%	25.4%	70.3%	6.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	72.1%	25.4%	70.3%	6.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	72.1%	25.4%	70.3%	6.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	72.1%	23.4%	62.4%	6.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	72.1%	23.4%	62.4%	6.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	72.1%	23.4%	62.4%	6.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	66.4%	23.4%	62.4%	6.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	66.4%	23.4%	62.4%	6.0%	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	71.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	27%	66.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	68.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	61.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗