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KORD / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
72%
AIFS
52%
ICON
21%
EPS
12%
HRES
9%
Consensus
20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 40.8¢Risks 40.75u
VS
HRESNO 59.2¢Risks 59.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.25u · HRES −59.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 81.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 66.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 56.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-13 18:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.0%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.1%———0.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:008.5%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.9%———5.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:001.4%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0043.6%———5.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0019.7%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0027.0%———5.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0062.1%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0045.2%———7.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:005.8%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0039.0%———8.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0054.8%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0011.5%———10.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.7%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0048.9%———24.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0025.7%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0042.6%———18.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0030.3%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:004.4%———23.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0030.7%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0044.3%———21.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0023.5%—0.0%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0068.6%—0.2%—10.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0015.5%—6.2%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0070.8%———5.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0079.0%—81.5%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0072.0%—7.4%—12.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0054.5%—57.6%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0056.5%—14.4%—13.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0062.4%—66.7%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0050.7%1.2%40.0%—11.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0052.8%—1.4%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0034.3%5.4%23.5%6.3%16.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0040.8%—64.7%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0041.3%3.6%52.2%16.5%5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0038.2%—50.7%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0028.3%0.5%49.2%2.4%5.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0032.6%—46.1%—3.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0031.6%4.5%59.5%4.5%4.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0025.0%0.2%17.3%—2.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0023.2%5.6%56.6%2.3%2.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0025.3%7.2%50.9%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0025.5%10.9%55.2%1.1%2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—7.1%57.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 272%74.7°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single52%72.7°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON21%68.6°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast16%68.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble12%67.8°F4.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES9%65.9°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend9%68.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗