KORD / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

58%

30%

20%

13%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

ICONNO 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.00u · ICON −51.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	67.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	0.4%	42.6%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	0.9%	46.5%	3.3%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	9.6%	60.1%	7.6%	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	22.2%	59.8%	25.8%	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	15.4%	46.8%	8.4%	—	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	0.2%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	12.9%	61.5%	8.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	15.7%	59.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	26.9%	53.5%	14.6%	16.1%	8.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	51.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	77.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	72.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	69.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	66.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	60.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261024-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 72°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗