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KORD / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
85%
AIFS
58%
EPS
30%
HRES
20%
ICON
13%
Consensus
46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 49.0¢Risks 49.00u
VS
ICONNO 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.00u · ICON −51.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00ICON: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00ICON: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:0058.3%30.1%85.2%20.2%12.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0058.3%30.1%85.2%20.2%12.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:0058.3%30.1%85.2%20.2%12.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0058.3%30.1%85.2%20.2%12.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0058.3%30.1%85.2%20.2%12.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 285%77.2°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
AIFS Single58%72.7°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend55%72.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble30%69.1°F4.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES20%66.1°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON13%60.2°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261024-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 72°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗