KORD / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 21:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

74%

55%

48%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

EPSNO 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.65u · EPS −31.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	62.0%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	76.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	0.3%	46.6%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	32.3%	36.9%	22.4%	—	28.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	43.4%	30.4%	44.9%	—	23.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	50.8%	40.9%	44.7%	—	15.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	73.9%	77.0%	46.0%	43.6%	32.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	50.8%	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	59.9%	59.9%	25.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	76.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	74%	74.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	71.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	70.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗