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KORD / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
AIFS
87%
ICON
65%
HRES
32%
EPS
25%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 59.4¢Risks 59.40u
VS
EPSNO 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.60u · EPS −40.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 42.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:0010-18 08:0110-19 06:4710-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:0078.8%29.3%86.7%42.6%12.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:0078.8%29.3%86.7%42.6%12.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:0078.8%29.3%86.7%42.6%12.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0078.8%29.3%86.7%42.6%12.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:0078.8%29.3%86.7%42.6%12.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:0072.3%27.0%88.4%48.8%57.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:0072.3%27.0%81.1%48.8%57.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0072.3%27.0%81.1%48.8%57.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0072.3%27.0%81.1%48.8%57.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:0086.6%27.0%81.1%32.5%65.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0086.6%27.0%81.1%32.5%65.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0086.6%27.0%81.1%32.5%65.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0086.6%27.0%81.1%32.5%65.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:0086.6%27.0%81.1%32.5%65.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:0086.6%25.2%93.6%32.5%65.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:0086.6%25.2%93.6%32.5%65.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 294%77.6°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single87%76.5°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON65%73.3°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend46%70.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES32%67.5°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble25%67.5°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗