KORD / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

77%

55%

22%

13%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.8¢Risks 49.75u

EPSNO 50.2¢Risks 50.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.25u · EPS −50.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	31.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	14.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	50.0%	—	15.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	24.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	38.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	65.2%	—	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	22.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	0.1%	33.6%	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	30.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	20.9%	24.6%	13.4%	17.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	29.7%	18.9%	31.0%	14.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	31.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	77.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	76.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	55%	73.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	40%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	67.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	67.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗