KORD / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

77%

55%

22%

13%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.8¢Risks 49.75u

EPSNO 50.2¢Risks 50.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.25u · EPS −50.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00	67.4%	15.9%	77.3%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	67.4%	15.9%	77.3%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	67.4%	15.9%	77.3%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	67.4%	15.9%	77.3%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	67.4%	15.9%	77.3%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	67.4%	15.3%	69.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	67.4%	15.3%	69.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	67.4%	15.3%	69.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	60.3%	15.3%	69.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	60.3%	15.3%	69.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	60.3%	14.0%	69.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	60.3%	14.0%	69.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	60.3%	14.0%	76.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	60.3%	14.0%	76.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	60.3%	14.0%	76.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	60.3%	14.0%	76.5%	31.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	72.3%	14.0%	76.5%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	72.3%	14.0%	76.5%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	72.3%	14.0%	76.5%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	72.3%	14.0%	76.5%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	72.3%	14.0%	78.9%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	72.3%	14.0%	78.9%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	72.3%	14.0%	78.9%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	59.6%	14.0%	78.9%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	59.6%	14.0%	78.9%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	59.6%	14.0%	78.9%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	59.6%	14.0%	78.9%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00	59.6%	14.0%	78.9%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	59.6%	14.0%	68.8%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	59.6%	14.0%	68.8%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	59.6%	14.0%	68.8%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00	77.0%	14.0%	68.8%	22.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	77.0%	14.0%	68.8%	22.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	77.0%	14.0%	68.8%	22.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	77.0%	14.0%	68.8%	22.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	77.0%	14.0%	68.8%	22.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	77.0%	13.2%	86.3%	22.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	77.0%	13.2%	86.3%	22.4%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	77.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	76.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	55%	73.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	40%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	67.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	67.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗