KPDX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

66%

60%

53%

44%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 72.2¢Risks 72.15u

ICONNO 27.8¢Risks 27.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.85u · ICON −27.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	49.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	4.0%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	67.0%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	81.5%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	87.2%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	82.9%	83.4%	72.5%	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	90.4%	82.0%	—	45.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	64.9%	76.1%	65.6%	—	46.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	60.3%	17.9%	39.0%	—	46.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	34.5%	23.2%	58.3%	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	22.0%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	72.4%	58.7%	45.6%	—	39.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	62.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	56.4%	49.1%	45.4%	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	49.0%	25.3%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	52.9%	57.7%	55.8%	—	38.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	53.0%	45.0%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	63.1%	11.8%	33.0%	—	39.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	67.4%	33.5%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	65.9%	65.9%	36.1%	0.0%	40.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	61.1%	70.4%	14.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	70.0%	41.9%	16.8%	—	32.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	71.7%	46.4%	19.9%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	63.4%	41.3%	15.1%	4.3%	40.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	61.5%	52.6%	25.9%	—	39.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	60.6%	63.2%	44.6%	13.4%	30.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	61.0%	70.0%	13.9%	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	58.6%	76.6%	23.4%	22.2%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	71.5%	81.9%	15.3%	—	38.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	72.4%	51.6%	2.2%	25.0%	22.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	59.8%	51.6%	26.7%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	91%	67.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0081
AIFS Single	66%	67.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1176
WeatherNext 2	60%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1640
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
IFS HRES	53%	65.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2190
ICON	44%	65.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3091

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗