KPDX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

66%

60%

53%

44%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 72.2¢Risks 72.15u

ICONNO 27.8¢Risks 27.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.85u · ICON −27.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	45.7%	50.8%	81.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	45.7%	50.8%	81.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	54.3%	50.8%	81.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	54.3%	50.8%	81.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	54.3%	50.8%	81.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	62.0%	100.0%	54.3%	50.8%	68.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	62.0%	100.0%	54.3%	50.8%	68.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	62.0%	100.0%	54.3%	50.8%	68.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	62.0%	100.0%	54.3%	50.8%	68.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	62.0%	100.0%	54.3%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	62.0%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	62.0%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	62.0%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	64.4%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	64.4%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	64.4%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	64.4%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	64.4%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	64.4%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	64.4%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	64.4%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	68.7%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	59.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	68.7%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	59.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	68.7%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	59.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	68.7%	100.0%	41.5%	42.9%	59.9%
2026-10-14T10:34:41+00:00	68.7%	100.0%	41.5%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	68.7%	100.0%	45.3%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	68.7%	100.0%	45.3%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	68.7%	100.0%	45.3%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	65.4%	100.0%	45.3%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	65.4%	100.0%	45.3%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	65.4%	100.0%	45.3%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	65.4%	100.0%	45.3%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	65.4%	100.0%	45.3%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	65.4%	100.0%	46.5%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	65.4%	100.0%	46.5%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	65.4%	100.0%	46.5%	57.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	64.5%	100.0%	46.5%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	64.5%	100.0%	46.5%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	64.5%	100.0%	46.5%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	64.5%	100.0%	46.5%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	64.5%	100.0%	46.5%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	64.5%	99.9%	44.1%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	64.5%	99.9%	44.1%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	64.5%	99.9%	44.1%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	66.3%	99.9%	44.1%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	66.3%	99.9%	44.1%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	66.3%	99.9%	44.1%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	66.3%	99.9%	44.1%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	66.3%	99.9%	44.1%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	66.3%	99.9%	53.5%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	66.3%	99.9%	53.5%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	66.3%	99.9%	53.5%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:29+00:00	68.8%	99.9%	53.5%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	68.8%	99.9%	53.5%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	68.8%	99.9%	53.5%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	68.8%	99.9%	53.5%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00	68.8%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	68.8%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	68.8%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00	68.8%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:41+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	60.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	64.4%	99.9%	60.2%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	64.4%	99.9%	60.2%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	64.4%	99.9%	60.2%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	64.4%	99.9%	60.2%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	64.4%	99.9%	56.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	64.4%	99.9%	56.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	64.4%	99.9%	56.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	56.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	56.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	56.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	56.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	56.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	61.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	61.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	66.2%	99.9%	61.4%	50.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	67.5%	99.9%	61.4%	50.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	67.5%	99.9%	61.4%	50.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	67.5%	99.9%	61.4%	50.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	67.5%	99.9%	61.4%	50.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	67.5%	99.9%	61.4%	50.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	67.5%	99.9%	50.0%	50.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	67.5%	99.9%	50.0%	50.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	67.5%	99.9%	50.0%	50.0%	47.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	69.3%	99.9%	50.0%	55.3%	47.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	69.4%	99.9%	50.0%	55.3%	47.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	69.4%	99.9%	50.0%	55.3%	47.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	69.4%	99.9%	50.0%	55.3%	47.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	69.4%	99.9%	50.0%	55.3%	47.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	69.4%	99.9%	55.5%	55.3%	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	69.4%	99.9%	55.5%	55.3%	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	69.4%	99.9%	55.5%	55.3%	47.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	64.8%	99.9%	55.5%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	64.8%	99.9%	55.5%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	64.8%	99.9%	55.5%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	64.8%	99.9%	55.5%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	64.8%	99.9%	55.5%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	64.8%	99.9%	51.4%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	64.8%	99.9%	51.4%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	64.8%	99.9%	51.4%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	65.7%	99.9%	51.4%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	65.7%	99.9%	51.4%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	65.7%	99.9%	51.4%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	65.7%	99.9%	51.4%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	65.7%	99.9%	51.4%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	65.7%	99.9%	59.5%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	65.7%	99.9%	59.5%	53.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	65.7%	99.9%	59.5%	53.2%	44.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	91%	67.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0081
AIFS Single	66%	67.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1176
WeatherNext 2	60%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1640
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
IFS HRES	53%	65.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2190
ICON	44%	65.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3091

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗